As of today June 13, 2022 S&P 500 is 21% down since January. Dow Jones is 33% down off it’s November 2021 records. This clearly indicates we are in the recession territory. Inflation is 8.6% and Fed is about to increase interest rates 50bp and next month in July most likely they will do it again. Some expect that in July Fed will go with increase of 75bp. If Fed goes with 75bp in July this will undermine their credibility and market is most likely going to experience another dramatic sell off. Current downturn in the market is attributed to $4.5 T of security purchases by Fed right after Covid news spread out in 2020 and additional $3.6 T US Government money first for businesses and then to consumers directly through unemployment benefits, child-tax-credits and direct checks in the mail.